Spring Statement highlights Autumn to do list

Originally written as a column for Inside Housing

There were by choice no policy announcements in the Spring Statement but the message about the government’s housing priorities could hardly have been clearer.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves had deliberately downplayed the significance of the statement, which was meant to be an update on the public finances rather than a full-blown Budget.

That meant that – with one exception – there were no background documents to wade through to find hidden announcements and hints about future policy direction.]

The exception came from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), and the first message was about the key manifesto target of 1.5 additional homes in this parliament. 

Not a chance, says the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook: in the five years from 2025/26 to 2030/31 the independent watchdog forecasts there will be just 1.3 million net additions across the UK (30,000 higher than it forecast in November).

Net additions will fall in line with subdued recent housing starts to just 220,000 in 2026/27, it says, but then rise sharply to just over 305,000 by 2030/31 ‘reflecting the impact of planning reforms’.

That may sound closer than we thought to 1.5 million and the government will welcome the acknowledgement of the impact of its policies.

But eagle-eyed readers will already have spotted that the target is for England whereas the forecast is for the UK and that they cover different time periods.

Adjusting for homes built in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland only increases the size of the shortfall: England-only net additions will total around 1.1 million, 400,000 short of the target.