Who is doing ‘an effing good job’?

Originally written as a column for Inside Housing.

The thing that struck me after Gillian Keegan’s hot mic moment is that virtually any other Conservative cabinet minister could clam the same thing.

Ok it may be stretching it a bit to say that Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt et al are doing ‘an effing good job’ but they could quite reasonably say that ‘everyone else has sat on their arse’ (even if we might debate the use of ‘else’).

Schools with crumbling reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete (RAAC) have inevitably become a metaphor for the state of the country and the government’s attitude to public investment, chiming perfectly with Keir Starmer’s attack lines about ‘sticking plaster politics’ and ‘cowboy builders’.

But think for a minute about housing and Michael Gove could reasonably claim to have done more than all his predecessors to tackle a building safety crisis even more serious RAAC and more to restore the legitimacy of social housing even as he promises long-delayed reforms of leasehold and private renting.

Whether that amounts to an ‘effing good job’ very much remains to be seen: the building safety crisis continues for those left outside Gove’s settlement and his commitments on the other three areas are mostly rhetorical rather than actual.

In the meantime, councils are going bankrupt and housing associations are cutting their development programmes. Housebuilding in general is falling: while ministers continues to proclaim the government’s target of 300,000 new homes a year by the mid-2020s, they have surrendered to the Tory backbenchers on planning and there is no chance of hitting it.

All this as homelessness is rising, temporary accommodation is at record levels, a crisis in refugee housing is developing and RACC could yet prove to be a problem in housing.

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Five wasted years

Originally published on April 17 on my blog for Inside Housing.

Dominic Raab’s comments about immigration and house prices may have sparked a furore but they also shine a light on something else about the recent history of housing.

Amid mounting pressure, on Friday the Ministry for Housing and Communities Local Government (MHCLG) published updated analysis that he had relied on for his claim that he had been told by civil servants that immigration has increased house prices by 20 per cent over the last 25 years.

When I tweeted about it, the man himself came back to me with this:

In fairness, he could have added that the increase was actually 21 per cent but, as I suggested last week, that is minor by comparison with the 284 per cent total rise in prices that happened between 1991 and 2016 and accounts for just £11,000 of the £152,000 increase.

According to the analysis, increases in real earnings were a much more important factor in price rises.

Look a little deeper, though, and the analysis does not really prove very much either way.

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Shuffling the deck

So housing seems to have kept the politicians who should have gone and lost the one who was making a difference.

Speculation ahead of the reshuffle suggested that Eric Pickles and Iain Duncan Smith would leave their posts as part of the cull of middle aged men in the Cabinet. True, some of the stories seemed a bit thin (a woman with a posh accent overheard talking on the phone didn’t seem like much to go on) but I lived in hope. I also looked forward to the DWP press release arguing that it proved that universal credit is ‘on track and on schedule’.

Instead it’s business as usual at the top of their two departments with a shake-up lower down the ministerial scale. After just over nine months in the job, Kris Hopkins is now the former housing minister and is shunted sideways into local government. Brandon Lewis moves from that job and gets a promotion to minister of state for housing and planning. Penny Mordaunt comes in as junior minister responsible for coastal communities.

-> Read the rest of this post on Inside Edge, my blog for Inside Housing


Eric’s ladder

The boast from ministers is that Help to Buy really is getting Britain building – but is it enough?

The narrative according to Eric Pickles is that the coalition ‘inherited a situation where builders couldn’t build, buyers couldn’t buy and lenders wouldn’t lend’. Now, thanks to Help to Buy and the reinvigorated Right to Buy, ‘we’re ensuring that anyone who works hard and wants to get on the property ladder will be able to do so’.

Not to be outdone, housing minister Kris Hopkins said the housebuilding figures for the March quarter of 2014 were the result of a ‘massive government effort’ and even took credit for a 23-year high in council house building. And the DCLG press release comes complete with a statement from Stewart Baseley of the Home Builders Federation that the extension of Help to Buy 1 ‘is allowing the industry to plan ahead, rebuild capacity lost in the downturn and deliver the homes the country needs’.

-> Read the rest of this post on Inside Edge, my blog for Inside Housing


Pickled homes

To hear ministers talk we are in the middle of a housebuilding boom. Official figures released today beg to differ.

According to the DCLG housebuilding statistics for the fourth quarter of 2013, starts and completions in England were both down 1 per cent on the third quarter. These are only the figures for one quarter but they don’t seem in the script.

While starts for the year as a whole were up 23 per cent on 2012 at 122,800, completions were down 5 per cent at 109,480. True, those starts will soon turn into new homes but this hardly feels like a giant step towards the promised land of 250,000 additional homes a year.

Read the rest of this post on Inside Edge, my blog for Inside Housing